September 21, 2017

ICON post ICO – Bancor formula explained and ICX price speculation

by 2infiniti

First of all, congratulations to ICON team with a hit success on their ICO! The ICO was scheduled in October, with pre-sales of 3 rounds in September. Each participants were capped to 30 ETH, 100 ETH and 1000 ETH in each round in sequence. 1st round of the pre-sale was capped to 75,000 ETH for the general public, and 75,000 ETH for strategic contributors. Total hardcap for the ICO pre-sale+crowdfunding combined was 150,000 ETH. The team managed to reach the total hardcap within 6.5 hours, both public and strategic investors fulfilled the cap! This is max 30 ETH from each individual, no whales involved! I am sure the pre-sale would’ve been done in matter of minutes if there weren’t such cap. Once ICX hits exchanges, expect lots of FOMO buyers jumping in!

Bancor Formula Explained

Now there has been some major confusion regarding ICX future prices, people have been confused by ICON’s mention of using bancor formula in their whitepaper. The use of the word ‘pegged’ was the worst vocabulary to explain what it is. For those who don’t know what pegged means, it is simply to retain the exact ratio of the currency it is in relation to, ie. if 1 ETH is 2500 ICX, it will always be 1:2500, so the price of ICX is determined by ETH value, not by market demand. This is simply not the case and today I’m going to try and clarify that,

First and foremost, this has been put up since day 1 in ICON’s FAQ section

What is the expected value of ICX tokens after the tokensale?
The value cannot be predicted in advance.
As with any other cryptocurrencies, the value of token is determined by the market valuation.

So before diving into details, ICX is NOT pegged to ETH like most people think it does.

Let’s break the situation into two parts,

  1. At current stage, there’s no other currency but ETH in the reserve, it is natural that ICX price is in direct relation to ETH price (don’t use pegged again please!). So in the pre-sale, 2500 ICX tokens = 1 ETH, your tokens are worth what ETH is worth today, before the tokens become tradable.
  2. In the future when ICON releases its ICX DEX, ICX tokens will become tradable, and will be used as the intermediary transfer token among different cryptocurrencies. In this matter, bancor formula is in place FOR NOW, in order to determine the exchange rate. ICON DEX will incorporate other DEXs and as new currencies get added into the reserve, in the case of ETH, it’ll only hold partial volume of total ICX.

Now let’s take a closer look of what bancor formula looks like

This formula is not exactly rocket science!

If someone buys ICX, reserve balance increases and ICX volume decreases, resulting in an increase in ICX price. So the formula DOES take market supply/demand into account to determine the price.

Let’s go even a step beyond, check another ICO that actually lives on bancor network as an example, Stox. Its ICO price was around $1.1 per STX token, with 29mn tokens in circulation and total supply of 59mn tokens. Bancor holds 4% of STX market cap in BNT at any given time.

Let’s look at STX price today coinmarketcap, the token is driven by market supply and demand, currently around $0.5 USD per token, well below its ICO price. STX is based on bancor to benefit from sufficient liquidity, and avoid volatility risks, not to peg it as a stabilization mechanism.

ELI5: Insufficient liquidity is the risk of investors unable to acquire tokens when they want to speculate and of users unable to sell tokens when they want to cash out.

ELI5: Volatility risk is when token values fluctuate between the time an investor bought in and the time they want to cash out.

Price Speculation

******Disclaimer******
Price speculation is purely based on personal opinion, it is not based on facts. Do not take this as investment advise!

Given that people often refer ICON to South Korea being similar to what NEO is to China, both are the first public blockchain from the country with substantial support from investors nationwide. If we base on today’s market cap of NEO, currently around $1 billion USD. ICON’s raise of 150,000 ETH at the time of the pre-sale was around 42 million USD. In other words, 23.8x in price will pass NEO in market cap.

Pre-sale of the ICO was 1 ETH to 2500 ICX, around $0.1128 USD per ICX token. A 23.8x gain will calculate to ~$2.68 per token. This is the minimum goal I expect before even considering taking profit. But of course this is based on today’s prices, by the time ICON catches up, the market cap of NEO can fluctuate quite significantly, use your own judgement! ICON’s ultimate goal is to become the biggest blockchain in the world, so we’re aiming to bypass Ethereum and maybe even Bitcoin, very far fetched goal but never say never 😉

People who participated in the pre-sale were limited to 30ETH each, from observation in various social channels, a ton of people were willing to put it more if they could. With that said, when ICX hits exchanges, I expect a major price rally, for those who missed on the pre-sale, and those who wanted more during the pre-sale.

We can safely bet that the first exchange to list will be coinone, one of the biggest crytocurrency exchanges in South Korea, a company that is under the same corporate umbrella, Dayli Financial Group as ICON.

I’m also expecting support from other South Korean exchanges, namely Bithumb, to list shortly after.

Foreign exchanges will also likely adopt the token, but since most exchanges forbid disclosure of listing tokens, I don’t think we can ever find out who’s next in line before it is actually listed.

TL;DR

ICX is not pegged to ETH

ICX will moon 😀

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  320. Schöne ruhige 1-Zimmer Wohnung / Küche / BAD / WC / SAT-TV / Internet / Waschmaschine Im Grünen gelegene, komfortable, am Ende einer Sackgasse, helle ruhige 1-Zimmerwohnung mit separatem, eigenem Eingang. Die Wohnung wurde im Mai 2018 komplett renoviert und Neu eingerichtet. Parkplatzmöglichkeiten gibt es auf der öffentlichen Straße und sind in der Regel immer vorhanden. Die Wohnung hat einen 40 Zoll Sat-TV, eine Waschmaschine, sowie Internet (Wlan) gegen eine kleine Gebühr. Ein Bügeleisen und Bügelbrett sind ebenfalls forhanden. In der Küche finden Sie neben einem Backofen mit Cerankochfeld, eine Geschirspülmaschine, einen Kühlschrank mit 4-Sterne Gefrierfach, eine Kaffeemaschine ,Wasserkocher sowie einen Toaster. Der Schoko- “laden“ Werksverkauf der Weltberühmten Marke Ritter Sport sowie das Ritter Museum und das Ritter Museums-Café erreichen sie nach ca. 450 Meter bzw. 6 Minuten zu Fuß. Für Naturliebhaber lädt der schöne Schönbuch-Wald direkt vor der Haustüre zu Spaziergängen oder Wanderungen ein. Waldenbuch liegt am Nördlichen Rand des Waldgebiets und gleichnamigen Naturparks Schönbuch ca. 17 km südlich von Stuttgart und hat ca. 8500 Einwohner. Nach Böblingen sind es ca.14 km, nach Tübingen ca. 19 km und zur Messe Stuttgart ca. 12 km. Idyllisch im Tal gelegen strahlt Waldenbuch heute mit seinen Fachwerkhäusern, Brunnen und Staffeln im historischen Altstadtkern einen ganz besonderen Charme aus. Sowohl die Stadtkirche St. Veit mit ihrem 36 Meter hohen Kirchturm als auch das wunderschöne Schloss begeistern die Gäste. 24h Check-In nach Absprache möglich Lebensmitteldiscounter wie Lidl, DM-Drogerie-Markt, Penny Markt und Getränkemarkt erreicht man zu Fuß in ca. 5 bis 20 Minuten. Durch die ruhige aber dennoch zentrale Lage der Wohnung ist man mit dem Auto in kurzer Zeit in Stuttgart, Tübingen, Esslingen, Böblingen der Outlet-Stadt Metzingen oder Sindelfingen.

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  335. TOP !!! Beautiful quiet 1-room apartment / kitchen / bath / WC / SAT-TV / Internet / washing machine In the countryside, comfortable, at the end of a cul-de-sac, bright quiet 1-room apartment with separate, private entrance. TOP !!! The apartment was completely renovated in May 2018 and refurbished. TOP !!! Parking is available on the public road and are always available. TOP !!! The apartment has a 40 inch satellite TV, a washing machine, as well as internet (wi-fi) for a small fee. An iron and ironing board are also available. In the kitchen you will find an oven with ceramic hob, a dishwasher, a refrigerator with 4-star freezer, a coffee machine, kettle and a toaster. The chocolate “shop” factory outlet of the world-famous brand Ritter Sport as well as the Ritter Museum and the Ritter Museums-Café can be reached after about 450 meters or 6 minutes on foot. For nature lovers, the beautiful Schönbuch forest invites you right outside the front door to walks or hikes. Waldenbuch is located on the northern edge of the forest and the natural park Schönbuch about 17 km south of Stuttgart and has about 8500 inhabitants. It is about 14 km to Böblingen, 19 km to Tübingen and about 12 km to the Messe Stuttgart. Idyllically located in the valley, Waldenbuch today radiates a special charm with its half-timbered houses, fountains and seasons in the historic old town center. Both the town church of St. Veit with its 36 meter high church tower and the beautiful castle delight the guests. 24h check-in by arrangement possible Food discounters such as Lidl, DM drugstore market, penny market and beverage market can be reached on foot in about 5 to 20 minutes. Due to the quiet but central location of the apartment is by car in a short time in Stuttgart, Tübingen, Esslingen, Böblingen the outlet city Metzingen or Sindelfingen.

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